Why we believe Harris will win the 2024 election

Kamala’s Appeal

Election time can be a dizzying labyrinth to navigate, especially when candidates are running for re-election. Those seeking to keep or return to office often face scrutiny for every perceived misstep or failure during their tenure. Both President Biden and former President Trump have been inundated with accusations of failing to live up to their promises. The finger-pointing between the two candidates has been incessant—was inflation triggered during Trump’s presidency, or did it worsen under the Democrats? Passing the buck seems to be the most popular political strategy employed in the most recent elections.

The events of Biden’s and Trump’s presidencies have left many voters feeling resentful. Unfortunately for both of them, studies have shown that dislike is a stronger motivator for voting than any other factor. Both Trump and Biden have been blamed for many perceived failings during their time in office. Kamala Harris, however, is not burdened by such accusations. Although she served as Vice President, she is not directly held responsible for the grievances against the Democratic administration. More importantly, she can leverage the hope for better policies than those offered by both Trump and Biden.

Kamala’s #Trending

Within a week of announcing her candidacy, Harris broke election donation records and closed a nine-point gap between the democratic nominee and Trump. The criticisms used against Biden by the Republican administration do not apply to her. The age-related attacks aimed at President Biden can now be turned against Trump, as Harris is 19 years younger.

So far, Trump’s team has focused on her laugh, her family structure, her race, and her romantic relationships. They have been unable to come up with a substantial line of defense, instead resorting to schoolyard tactics like mocking Democratic senators for their body image, questioning the legitimacy of Tim Walz’s military career to appeal to their base, and labeling Kamala Harris as a "childless cat-lady." These tactics are so devoid of substance that they may become glaringly obvious to moderate or swing voters, who may choose a candidate who at least appeals to the future rather than clinging to an idealized past. The past is unlikely to appeal to the younger generation or marginalized minorities. Trump’s main stronghold remains the illusion that his economic policies were more effective during his tenure.

Kamala, on the other hand, is leading in polls for perceptions of authenticity, compassion, likability, and honesty, while Donald Trump leads in charisma. His team hopes his engaging speeches and overly-simplistic way of speaking will help him reclaim the White House. However, he appears to be losing ground less than a month after Harris announced her candidacy. Kamala is already leading in Sunbelt states (North Carolina and Arizona), despite being in the race for only a short time. The Republican camp is panicking, as seen in their weak attempts to attack Harris’s integrity by suggesting she used her romantic relationships to get ahead.

Challenges for the Democrats

That said, the road will not be easy for Kamala. While many Democratic constituents may welcome a more energetic candidate, liberal voters are notoriously less forgiving than their Republican counterparts. She has been persistently challenged by protesters demanding greater accountability in U.S.-Israeli relations. Trump, despite his criminal convictions and tumultuous presidency, has retained many followers. He represents the built-up resentment of those who are exhausted by the push for progressiveness, equity, and minority representation. Many are looking to conserve what they knew and were comfortable with, feeling threatened by the rise of cancel culture and the increased intolerance of political incorrectness. This resentment could drive them to vote in ways that may actually conflict with their own interests.

Trump’s economic policies, particularly the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, appeared to create a boost, but these effects are estimated to be short-lived. The tax cuts are projected to add $2 trillion to the deficit by 2028. It's also important to note that the household tax policies from Trump's administration will remain in effect until 2025, meaning critics of Biden may not realize that Trump’s policies are still in effect.

The Democratic campaign is leveraging the promise of change and appealing to hope for the future, rather than pandering to anger fuelled by fear of the unknown. Harris's policies are focused on the future with actionable plans that serve the interests of American citizens, while Trump remains nostalgic for the past without offering a clear plan for how to bring the “great” past into the future.

Now we may just engaging in a little wishful thinking but we believe that Kamala’s message, reach, and current polling trends will help her win this election.