Why Trump is ahead in polls
This year 49% of the world’s population will be experiencing an election. 64 countries, (as well as the European Union) will be choosing their leaders that may determine the outcomes on some of the most contentious global challenges. The results unfolding this year have the potential to shape a significantly different world by 2025. Both Former President Trump and President Biden are tasked with the arduous challenge of convincing a disillusioned and skeptical American public to entrust in them the power of leading the country during an exhaustingly tumultuous time.
The polls are projecting a nail-bitingly tight race. Unfortunately for both political parties there is greater disapproval than approval (President Biden at 57% disapproval and Former President Trump at 55% disapproval). Both candidates can’t seem to shake the pervasive rhetoric that this year the election is between “bad vs worse”. Trump is still criticized for his seemingly crass candour and far-fetched solutions for circumstances that are highly nuanced and consequential. However, Biden has repeatedly given potential credence to the charge that he is not up to the task of presidency through public interactions that demonstrate he is perhaps past his prime (to put it delicately). He has on more than one occasion fumbled and confused world leaders, wars, and slower to respond to critical questions by reporters. While close in age (3 years younger to be exact), Former President Trump is undeniable quicker on his feet to answer questions which gives the impression of greater vivacity.
The Real Kicker
One undeniably huge liability to President Biden’s re-election is the ongoing war in Gaza. Left leaning voters are greatly divided on how to proceed with support for or in opposition to Israel during this conflict. American conservatives however, are currently more united in their support for the GOP. President Trump once confidently (and hopefully hyperbolically) stated that he “could shoot somebody” and still not lose voters. The state of the world, economy, and foreign affairs during a leaders’ tenure will affect the opinions constituents even if it is independent of the president’s policies. For this war however, a considerable number left-leaning constituents are likely to spitefully vote for Trump because didn’t happen during his term. Many voters are angry for the financial and rhetorical support for Israel and the IDF and unfortunately for President Biden, the demographic that could swing this election, believe this war will make or break a vote for them.
How President Trump could come out on top
The GOP is masterfully leveraging the unknown and stoking the flames of frustration to their advantage. President Trump consistently posits that if he were still president neither war would have occurred under his watch. He highlights his relationship with President Putin and his confrontational approach to Iran as the reasoning to the now forgone stability he had during his term. Fortunately for him, the unknown works highly in his favor. To tip the scales further in his direction, many are suffering under increased inflation, housing-cost crises, and mass lay-offs all while President Biden has signed a 94 billion dollar aid package to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel. President Biden hailed this decision as a being conducive to world peace however he will be constantly confronted with the rhetoric that his administration is facilitating ongoing conflicts and prioritizing foreign affairs over domestic challenges.
What each candidate needs to do in order to win
Candour: What do Berlusconi, Trump and Le Penn all have in common? They are pedagogies that translate the complexities of economics, international tensions, and faltering progression into seemingly simplistic terms that many in their respective populations can identify with and quickly understand (independent of their truth or validity). These leaders speak in ways that are not typically regarded as “presidential” and similar thoughts can often be expressed by disgruntled family members over the dinner table. However, this in turn makes them more appealing because it gives off the illusion of unfiltered honesty and familiarity… They are saying what many others are thinking. Therefore the highly calculated and conscientiously sensitive wording of the left-leaning politicians may often come off as stiff, insincere, out-of-touch, or even possibly elitist.
Biden: He needs to approach these speeches with the same unapologetic candour that his opposition employs. It may not be his style and usually against the better judgments of his consultants but constituents across the board are tired of the hidden agendas and carefully minced wording. People are craving true intentions and clear objectives. If they choose to continue their support for Israel’s military mission- they need to also establish a red-line. Whether or not this red-line is crossed and how they will deal with it is another question. Appearing tough on allies for the sake of Americans may be necessary as demonstrated by his opposition, especially during a time of deeply felt economic frustration. Many constituents would also appreciate more impassioned speeches that include fewer teleprompters to emphasis that he is aware and capable despite his nay-sayers accusations.
Trump: He needs to continue to weave the idea that he is more moderate than his opposers assume. He recently stated that students who graduate from an American higher level education institution should receive Green Cards automatically, whether or not he will follow through is irrelevant, it is the air of moderation that will sway his skeptics that are disapproving of Biden. This proposition is unlikely to pass due to the nature of creating laws in the United States— he would first need the bill to be proposed and passed through Congress. Additionally, leveraging the “if I was still in charge” rhetoric is also a brilliant way to inject doubt into the followers of his opposition especially during this tumultuous time in foreign affairs.
A word to voters: Although it may often appear that the candidates do not fully embody your convictions, engaging in the electoral process remains a critical act. Even in scenarios that seem lose-lose, abstaining can lead to even less desirable outcomes. Your participation is essential. Cast your vote because as we’ve seen time and time again, it can always get worse.